IneachcaseStatecraftisanArt，andthefinancialpolicyisanartisticorcreativeworkinwhichquantitiesareusedbutdonotdirectordominate。

Bythislineofargumentitmayappearasifwehadrepudiatedtheentireutilityofascientificcalculus。This，however，isnotthecase。

Forthoughallthedeterminantactsofpolicyorwelfare，performedbyanindividualorasociety，involveorganicunityofdesign，andthequalitativeconsiderationsappertainingthereto，importantandindeednecessaryassistanceisrenderedbythequantitativeanalysisofpastactsexpressedintheformofscientificgeneralisations。Aclearerunderstandingofthenatureandextentofthiscooperationbetweenscienceandartintheconductoflifeenforcesthistruth。

§；11。SciencetakesitsstanduponatwofoldapplicationoftheassumptionoftheuniformityofNature，first，thatalldifferencesofcompositioncanbetreatedasdifferencesofquantityordegree，secondly，thathistoryrepeatsitself。Now，justsofarastheseassumptionsfitthefacts，Scienceisvalidforinterpretationandforguidance。Thisexplainswhyastronomy，physicsandchemistryaremore"exact"sciencesthanbiologyorpsychology，andwhytheyareabletogivemorereliableandauthoritativerulesfortheartsofnavigation，engineeringanddrug-making，thanthelattercanformedicine，forbreedingorforeducation。EdwardCarpenterhasremarkedthatastronomyisthemostexactoftheappliedsciences，becauseweknowleastaboutit，i。e。，becausewetreatitssubject-matteralmostentirelyfromthesinglequantitativestandpointofspacerelations。

Inallartsdealingentirelyormainlywithinorganicmatterscienceoccupiesaseatofhighauthority，becauseofthehighrelativeuniformityofthismatterandthecomparativeregularityofitsbehaviour。Inphysicsorininorganicchemistrytheindividualdifferencesoreccentricitiesofthematerialaresotrivialthattheycanusuallybedisregarded，andhistoryrepeatsitselfwithsomuchregularitythatquantitativelawsapply。

Thepassagefromtheinorganictotheorganicinvolves，aswerecognise，adoubleassertionofthequalitative:first，inrespectoftheunityanduniquenessoftheorganicstructure，andsecondly，byreasonofthenoveltythatattendseachactoforganicchange，vitalmovement，assimilation，growth，reproductionordecay。Theuniquenessoftheindividualorganismandthenoveltyofeachofitschangesareanassertionofthequalitativenatureofthesubject-matter。Sofarasthisqualitativenatureprevailsandcountsfor"conduct，"scientificanalysisisimpotentforinterpretationandadvice。Whenorganicmatterattainsthecharacterofconsciousnessandthestillhighercharacterofself-consciousness，thequalitativeconsiderationsreachamaximum，andtheinterpretationanddirectivepowerofscienceaminimum。Butthatminimummustnotbedisparaged。Itisnotinconsiderable。

Theassistancewhichscientificlawscanrendertothefinestartsofhumanconductisveryimportantandiscapableofconstantaugmentation。Forsofarashumannatureisuniformandstableamongtheunitswhichconstitutethelifewhoseconductandwelfareareinquestion，theinterpretationanddirectionofsciencehasvalidity。Tothisextentautilitariancalculus，baseduponanalysisofpastexperience，canaidthestatesmanorthephilanthropistinworkingouthisdesign。Intheregionofindustrytheextentofthisscientificservicewillbeevengreaterthanintheartsofconductwhosematerialismoreexclusivelyorganicorpsychical。Forindustry，consideredasanartofhumanwelfare，willconsistlargelyintheorderlyandprogressiveadaptationofinorganicmatter，oroforganicmatterwhoseorganicdifferencescanbeignored，tothesatisfactionofthoseneedsofmankindinwhichmenaresimilar。Thatistosay，inindustrythereexistsandwillremainagreatdealofworkandofconsumptionwhichisessentiallyofauniformorroutinecharacter，requiringtobedonebymeasuredrules，anddependingforitsutilityupontheexclusionofallindividualityorquality。Thisapplies，notonlytothoseindustrialprocesseswhichwetermstrictlymechanical，buttoagreatmanyotherswherequalityisamatterofcomparativeindifference。Intheprogressiveeconomyofhumanwelfaremechanicalorroutineproductionwillevenfrequentlydisplaceanartinwhichqualitywasoncedisplayed。Sohome-baking，intowhichnosmalldegreeofculinaryskillcouldgo，hasgivenwaytomachine-bakinginwhichtheelementofpersonalskillplaysadiminishedpart，andonwhichtheindividualtasteoftheconsumerexertslittledirectiveinfluence。Thismaybetakenasatypicalexampleofthedisplacementofqualitativeartbyquantitativemechanism。Itis，ofcourse，ofverywideextension，being，infact，commensuratewiththeapplicationofscientificmethodsintheworldofindustry。Indeed，thesciencesofchemistryandphysics，botanyandbiology，areeverywhereinvadingthe"arts"ofindustryandimposing"rules"uponindustrialprocesses。

Evenmoresignificantistheapplicationofthestillinfantilescienceofpsychologytotheartsofbusinessorganisationandenterpriseandofmarketing。Howcanpsychologyassistinthedelicateartofrecommendinggoodstopossiblepurchasers？Onlyonthesuppositionthatthereissufficientuniformityandstabilityinhumannaturetoenablethemeasuredrulesofpastexperimentuponothermentoholdofthisman。Onlysofarasmenarereallythesamesortofstuff，orsofarasanydifferencesaremeasurableandcalculable。Noveltyalonecanbaffleappliedscience。

Ifitweretrue，assomeappeartothink，thatmachineryandroutinemethodweredestinedcontinuallytoabsorbalargerandlargerproportionofhumanwork，andtodirectalargerandlargershareofhumanlife，economicsciencewithitsquantitativecalculuswouldacquireacontinualincreaseofexactitude，andagrowingcapacityfordirectionintheartofsocialconduct。Butif，asseemsmorereasonable，progressiveindustrymustservetofeedaricherlibertyandnoveltyofindividualandsociallife，thedomainofquantitativecalculus，thoughabsolutelyenlarging，mayberelativelyshrinking。

Wenowseemabletogetamoreaccurateunderstandingofwhatascientificcalculuscandofortheassistanceoftheartofsocialwelfare。Itcandoforthatartwhatitcandoforeveryotherart，viz。，furnishrulesfortheregular。Sofarasthestuffwhichconstitutesorcomposeshumanwelfareisuniform，i。e。，sofarasmenarealikeintheirneeds，andthematerialforthesatisfactionoftheseneedsissimilar，itcansupplyrulesofsocialeconomywhichwillhaveahighdegreeofvalidity。Thoughnotwohumanorganismsareidenticalinstructure，allhumanorganismswithinawiderangeofenvironmentaresosimilarinthekindsoffood，airandothermaterialgoodswhichtheyrequire，thatitissound"socialpolicy"toignoretheirdifferencesandtotreatthemasidenticalinthequalitiesoftheirdemandsanddissimilaronlyinthequantities。Thepracticaleconomyof"markets"standsuponthisbasis，andthequantitativetreatmentfindsitstruejustificationintheutilityofmarkets。Therecanbenomarketforthesingleor"singular"consumer。Amarket，i。e。，apracticalinstrumentformeasurementofeconomicwants，impliesastandardisationofthedesiresofbuyersandsellers。Justsofarasthemembersofaneconomiccommunityarethusstandardisedintheirpreferences，areeconomiclawsapplicable。Thus，forthescientificinterpretationofsuchacommunity，muchdependsupontherelativestrengthandimportanceofthestandardisingandtheindividualisingforces。Inasocietywheretheso-called"arts"

ofindustryandofconsumptionhavealikepassedbyimitationortraditionintofirmconventionsfromwhichtheleasttransgressionisbrandedasanimpietyorawickedness，economiclaws，baseduponasufficientstudyofthepastandpresent，willenableonetopredictthefuturewithconsiderableaccuracy。Primitiveorbackwardcommunitiesareusuallyinthisconservativecondition。Moreover，astheyadvanceandbecomeeconomicallyprogressive，itisobservablethatthemostconservativeandmostcalculablewantsandactivitiesarethoserelatingtothesatisfactionoftheprimarymaterialneeds。Henceitisevidentthatscientificpredictions，basedeitherupongeneralconsiderationsofhumannatureoruponpastmeasurements，willcomenearesttofulfilment，accordingastheyrelatetotheproductionandconsumptionofthosearticlesmostdeeplyembeddedinthestandardofliving。Conveniencesandcomfortsaremorechangeablethannecessaries，andluxuriesmostchangeableofall。Nowthemarginalorleastusefulportionofthosesupplies，whichintheearlierormostusefulincrementssatisfysomeprimeneed，areoftenluxuries。Themarginalportionofthewheatsupplygoesforcakes，oristhrownintothedust-binaswastebread:themarginaloilgoesintomotorrides。Takingexpenditureingeneral，wefindthelasttenpercentofeveryincomemostincalculableinitsoutlay，becauseitrepresentsthosepurchasesinwhichcustomisweakestandindividualtasteoropportunitythestrongest。Inaword，itispreciselyinthoseeconomicactionswhichexpressmarginalpreferences，thepivotofthemechanicalcalculus，thatwefindthemaximumofinstabilityandincalculability。

Foreachofthesenicemarginalpreferencesproceedsdirectlyfromthechangingnatureoftheorganicpersonality。Whereasfiftypercentofaman"sexpendituremayexpressthecommonsatisfactionofthefixedphysicalneedswhichcustomhasembeddedinastandardofsubsistence，thirtypercentthelighterbutfairlystablecomfortsbelongingtohisclass，thelasttwentypercentisthepartinwhichheexpresseshisindividualcharacterandhiscravingsforpersonaldistinctionandvarietyofenjoyment。

Theformalinvalidityofthe"marginalist"methodhasalreadybeendisclosed。Theconsiderationsjustadducedindicateitspracticalfutilityasameansofguidanceforeconomicart。NeitherasadeductivenorasaninductivesciencecanEconomicsfurnishaccuraterulesforcalculatingordirectingfutureeconomicevents。Itcanonlyprophesywithinsuchlimitsasaresetbytheassumptionsofthestabilityofhumannatureandofitsenvironment。Itsrulesor"laws"willbestinterpretandpredictthoseeconomicactionswhicharemostremotefromthemargin，i。e。，thosewhicharemostconservativeorregular。Marginalpreferenceswillthereforebepreciselythosewhichitisprecludedfrominterpretingorpredictingbythenecessarydefectoftheintellectualinstrument。

§；12。Thusthefinalfutilityofthemechanicalmethodofmarginalismliesinitsinsistenceuponapplyingaquantitativemethodofinterpretationtothemostqualitativeportionofthesubject-matter，thatportionwheretheorganicconditionsofpersonalityandnoveltyareofparamountsignificance。

Indeed，itisforthisreasonthateconomicscience，thoughabletosupplyrelevantandimportantevidence，canneversolveconclusivelyanysocial-economicproblem，eveninthatfieldofactionwhereherauthorityismoststronglyasserted。Agivenriseorfallofpricecanneverproducethesameeffectupondemandtwicerunning。Why？Becausethedesiresandbeliefsofthemoreunsettledsectionofbuyers，the"marginal"buyers，willhavechanged。Norcanthisalterationineffectupondemandbecalculated。

Whynot？Becausethechangesindesiresandbeliefsareorganicqualitativechanges。Observationsofpastpricemovementsandlawsbaseduponthemarenottherebyrendereduseless。Fortheseorganicchangeswilloftenbenegligiblesofarasthebulkofthemarketisconcerned。Buttheynegatethepossibilitiesofexactprediction，andoftenofapproximatepredictionsonthemargin。

Thisiswhythe"great"businessmanoftenpreferstoactbyintuitionthanbyexpresscalculation。Herecognisesthat，sofarasthemoredelicatejudgmentsareconcerned，his"feeling"of"howthingswillgo"ismoretrustworthythananyestimate。Hedoesnotactblindly。Hefeedsandfortieshismindwithfactsandfigures，untilheissteepedinfamiliaritywiththesubjectmatter。Buthedoesnotdeliberatelybalanceagainstoneanotherthesemeasuredforcesandcommithimselftotheresultant。Forheisawarethattheproblemisnotoneofmeremechanics，acounting-houseproposition，butoneinvolvingforitssolutionsympathyandimagination。

Butthecrucialinstanceoftheorganicandspiritualnatureofadistinctlyeconomicproblemisinthecaseofcredit。Themathematicalmechanicaltreatmentclaimstofinditssupremejustificationinthepartplayedbymoney，themostabstractofeconomicphenomena。Credit，initsobjectivesense，istheeconomicplenipotentiary，theabsoluterepresentativeofeconomicpower。Forhewhohascredithasthecommandofland，capital，labour，abilityofeverysort，atanytimeandinanyplace。Creditisproductivepowerandpurchasingpower，forhewhopossessesitcanconvertitintoanysortofsupplyordemandhechooses。Itisabsolutelyquantitative，fluid，divisibleandmeasurable。Suchiscredit，treatedobjectivelybyeconomicscience。Butcreditisalsotheheartandbrainsoftheindustrialsystem。Subjectivelyregarded，itisanessentiallyspiritualthing，adelicate，sensitivecreatureofhumanbeliefsanddesires。Itsvolumeanditspowerforpracticalworkareaffectedbythisspiritualnature。Foritsspringsarefear，hope，prestige，superstition，sympathyandunderstanding。

Itstruebasisisneithergold，norgoods，butcredibility。Andthatqualityofcredibilityisfluctuatingallthetimeforeveryindividual，everybusiness，everystate。Newunpredictableeventsareconstantlyaffectingit。Noonecanthereforesaywithanyassuranceofcorrectness"aBankshouldkeep20%ofitsresourcesinreserveoratcall，"orputanysuchrigidlimitfortheoperationsofanyBank。Ifwedosetanysuchquantitativelimit，weshouldrealisethatitisonlyaroughpracticalrule，which，ifinterpretedwithautomaticrigour，leadstowasteanderrorintheactualworkingoffinance。Forbynoplottingofcurvescanyoureckonthefutureflowofhumancredibility，ortheapplicationofagivenamountofconcretecredittotheever-changinggainsandrisksofhumanindustry。TakethecriticalcaseofacollapseofcreditandtherunuponaBank。Topredictwithevenapproximateaccuracythecourseofsucharun，ortocheckitbycalculations，baseduponpastexperienceofsimilarcrisesappliedtotherecordsofpresentassetsandliabilities，wouldbeimpossible。Why？

Chieflybecauseofthepsycho-physicalfactors，theplayoforganicforces。

Youcancalculatewithcloseexactitudethestrainimposeduponabridgeofagivensize，materialandstructurebyagivenweight，distributionandpaceoftraffic。Youcannotcalculatewithequalexactitudethestrainwhichagivenquantityofliabilities，howevercarefullyanalysedandgraded，willimposeuponaBankreserveofagivensize。

Theincalculableelementconsistsoforganicnovelty，thechangesduetohavingtodealwithmatternotdeadandhomogeneousbutlivingandorganised。

Thecitationofsuchinstancesisnotdesignedtoprovethatmonetaryandotherstatisticsarepracticallyuselessforthepredictionandsolutionofsocial-economicproblems。Onthecontrary，theyareexceedinglyuseful。

Buttheformalexactitudewhichtheycarryintheirmethodcanneverbeconveyedintotheworktheyarerequiredtoassistindoing。Themostabundantsupplyofthemostaccuratestatistics，utilisedbythemostapprovedmethodsofeconomicscience，canonlyaffordresultsofarudeapproximatevalidity，expressedintendencies。Thepracticalmaninbusiness，inpolitics，ineverymodeofsocialconduct，willsupplementandcorrecttheapplicationofthescientificrulebytheplayofprivatejudgmentandintuition。***

§；13Ifthisistrueasregardsallpredictionsoffutureeconomichappenings，itistillmoretrueoftheconsciouspurposiveguidanceofthesehappeningsbytheapplicationofahumanstandardofvalues。Thepracticalstatesmanorsocialreformer，confrontedwithaconcretesocialproblem，e。g。，thedemandforastateenforcementofanationalminimumofwages，localoptionfortheclosureofpublichouses，orareferendumforconstitutionalchanges，willfindhimself"payingattention"and"givingweight"toanumberofdiverseandopposingconsiderations。Howwilltheselectionandthe"weighing"oftheseconsiderationsbebroughtabout？

Notdirectlyandconsciouslybytheapplicationofwhatmaybetermedhissocialideal，theimageinhissoulofthesocietywhichseemstohimabsolutelythemostdesirable。Therelationofthatultimateidealtotheparticularschemeunderconsideration，e。g。，anationalminimumwage，maybetoodistantandtoodubioustoaffordvaluationanddirection。Theoperativeidealwillbederivative，oneofarelatedsetofpossible-desirables，limitedandpracticableidealswhichformthemostpotentinstrumentsofhisstatecraft。

SuchanoperativeidealforanEnglishmanatthepresenttimemightbethevisionoftheState，asthecollectivewill，securingbylawaclearlyconceivedstandardofsoundefficientlifefortheordinaryworking-classfamily。Thispresentpracticalideal，derivedfromawiderconceptionofthedutyoftheStateinrelationtotheindividualmembersofacivilisedsociety，woulditselfbeafarwiderschemethantheparticularproposal，thatofnationalminimumwage，whichitwasinvokedtoassess。Thestatesman，enlightenedbythisderivativeideal，wouldapplyitasatestandstandardtotheparticularproposal。Hewouldconsiderit，notmerely"uponitsownmerits"butasincorporatedinthemorecomplexorganicplanofhisnationalminimum。Thisorganicplanandpurposewoulddeterminethe"value"

hegavetothevarious"pros"and"cons，"asforinstancetotheconsiderationhowfarlegalinterventionmightweakentheprivateorganisationofworkmenintheirtrade-unions，sodamagingotherbenefitsoftrade-unionism，ortheconsiderationhowfaritwasbettertowaitandsecureamoredemocraticallyadministeredStatebeforeentrustingitwiththedelicatefunctionofadjustingpecuniaryarrangementsbetweenworkmenandemployers。Thisplanorpurposeofanationalminimum，asapossibledesirable，willofcoursenotremainquitestableinhismind，willnotbearigidstandard。Itwillchangesomewhatinpattern，andindefinitenessofoutline，assomefreshouterorinnerexperiencemakesanypartofit，orthewhole，seemmoreorlessdesirable，ormoreorlesspossible，thanformerly。

§；14。Buttheimportantpointtonoteisthatitisthislargerorganicplanorvision，thecharacterandchangesofwhichareessentiallyqualitative，thatfurnishesthestandardandstampswiththeirrespective"values"thevariousconsiderationswhicharesaidto"determine"thepracticalvalueoftheproposalanditsacceptanceorrejection。Nosocial-economicproposal，howeverdistinctivelyquantitativeitappears，canbehumanlyvaluedinanyotherway。Itisforthisreasonthatamereeconomistisalwaysdisabledfromgivingpracticaladviceinanycourseofconduct。

Taketwoexamples。Politicaleconomycanlegitimatelyapplylawsofvaluesoastoshowthat，undercompetitiveconditions，anationmustproducealargerquantityofmarketablegoodsunderapolicyoffreeimportsthanunderanysortofTariff。ButthatproofinitselfcanneverbesufficientgroundforrejectingeitheraTariffforrevenue，orevenaTariffforprotection。FortheStatesmancannevertakethemaximumofmarketablevaluesashisfinalandsufficienttest。Ifitcouldbeshownthatnationalsecuritywereinvolvedinaprotectivesystemwhichkeptallnecessaryindustrieswithinthenationallimits，hemightplead"defenceismorethanopulence。"Or，ifitcouldbeshownthataprotectivetariffcouldbeoperatedsoastodistributeaslightlyreducedaggregateofwealthinamannermoreconducivetothepopularwelfareandthatthisconsiderationwasnotoffsetbyfearofcorruptionorofimpairedindustrialefficiency，orotherdisadvantages，theStatesmanmightrightlyadoptaTariffintheteethof"economiclaws。"9

Or，takeanotherexample，theproposalforaneighthoursday，securedbylaw。Apurelyeconomicenquirymight，byconsideringtheelasticityoflabourinvariousemployments，arriveattheconclusionthatageneralshorteningofthework-daywouldinvolveapresentreductionoftheproductbysomuchpercentageindifferenttrades，andthatitmightinvolveareductionofprofitsandofwagesandaprobablelossofsomuchexporttradeinvariousindustries。Itmightevenpresentsometentativeestimatesastotheeffectsofthepressureofthisnewcostofproductioninstimulatingimprovedeconomiesinmines，factoriesorrailways。Suchinformationwouldbeusefulandrelevant，butnotauthoritativeuponthejudgmentoftheStatesman。Forthesocialvalueofashorterwork-daywoulddependmainlyupontheorganicreactionsofincreasedleisureuponthewholestandardoflifeoftheworkingfamily，howitaffectedhisexpenditureofhiswages，itseffectuponhishealth，educationandrecreations，thecultivationoffamilyaffection，thebetterperformanceofneighbourlyandcivicduties，andallthatisinvolvedinmorelibertyandalargeroutlookuponlife。

Itisevident，inthefirstplace，thattheseessentialconsiderationslieoutsidethecalculationsoftheeconomist，and，secondly，thattheactualvaluesetoneachofthemwilldependuponandbederivedfromthewholefaithandsocialvisionofthestatesmaninquestion。

Thissocialorhumanvaluationofaso-calledeconomicprocessorgood，involvesthentwodeparturesfromaquantitativecalculus；first，thereductionoftheparticulareconomicfactorsthemselvesfromfinancialorotherquantitativetermstovitalorsubjectiveterms；secondly，therestorationofthisartificiallyseveredeconomicprocesstothelargerintegratedprocessofhumanlifefromwhichitwasabstractedbythescientificspecialismoftheeconomist。

Theeconomistcanfindthefacts，buthecannotfindtheirhumanimportanceorvalue，becauseassigninghumanvaluemeansreferringtoanextra-economicstandard。Itmeansmorethanthis。Itmeansareferencetoanextra-scientificstandard，onewhosedistinctivecharacterconsistsinitsbeingtheexpressionandoperationoftheorganiccomplexofforcescomposingthesocialpersonalityasmirroredintheconsciousorunconsciouseffortsoftheindividualsandoftheSocietywhomakethevaluationsandframetheirconductuponthem。

§；15。Inconclusionitisnecessarytoenforceanexceedinglyimportantdistinctionintheconceptionofsocialorhumanvaluation。Thetermmeanstwothings，theattributionofhumanorsocialvaluebyanindividualandbyasociety。InmostofourillustrationswehavetakenthestandpointoftheStatesmanorthereformer，orofsomeotherperson，andregardedsocialvaluesfromhiseyes。Wehavetakenhisidealasasocialideal。

Soitisinthesenseofbeinghisidealofasociety。Butitisessentialalsotoconsidersocietyasseekingtorealiseitsownideal。"Thewholesuccessionofmenduringmanyages，"saidPascal，"shouldbeconsideredasoneMan，everlivingandconstantlylearning。"Thisisthetrueorganicviewofhumanity，regardedeitherasasinglewholeorinitsseveralraces，nationsorcommunities。Theapophthegmisnotprimarilyofpoliticalorofethicalsignificance，butastatementofnaturalhistory。Itiscorroboratedinastrikingmannerbymodernbiologicalteaching，withitscontinuityofthegerm-plasm，itsembryonicrecapitulationanditsspecificevolution。

Butnotuntilnaturalhistoryisrescuedfromtheexcessivedominationofapurelyphysicalbiology，andisreadinthelanguageofcollectivepsycho-physics，dowegraspthefullbearingoftheorganicconceptioninitsapplicationtoasociety。Forthisconceptionofmankindasworkingoutthehumancareerbytheoperationofitsoriginalsupplyoffacultiesandfeelings，inwhichinstinctivephysicalmotivestakeanincreasingadmixtureofconsciousrationalguidance，isthekeytoanunderstandingoftheascentofman。Thereisnoclearevidenceofthecontinuousascentofmanregardedasindividual，atanyratewithin"historic"times。Thereisevidenceoftheascentofhumansocietytowardsalargerandclosercomplexityofhumanrelationsandaclearerintellectualandmoralconsciousness。

Thismeansthatmankind，asawhole，anditsseveralsocieties，isbecomingmorecapableofahumanvaluationandofacollectiveconductofaffairsguidedbythisconsciousprocess。Inpolitics，regardedinitswidermeaning，thistruthhastakenshapeinthemodernconceptionofthegeneralwill，whichinpopularly-governedStatesfunctionsthroughpublicopinionandrepresentativeinstitutions。Followingourexaminationofthelimitsofscienceor"rationalism"intheprocessesofvaluationandofconductonthepartofindividuals，weshallexpecttofindsomecorrespondinglimitsincollectiveman。Inotherwords，thegeneralwillofapeoplecannotberegarded，eitherinitsestimatesoritsdeterminations，asamerelyoramainlycalculativeprocess，workingouttherespectivevaluesofexistingcircumstances，orproposedchanges，intermsofclearly-definedutility。

Itdoesnotevenwithfullerinformation，widereducationandfirmerself-control，tendtowardsthisscientificpolitics。Collectiveself-government，likeindividualself-government，willalwaysremainessentiallyanart，itsdirectionanddeterminantmotivesbeingcreative，qualitative，androotedintheprimalinstinctsofman。

§；16。Itisuponthisconceptionofthecollectiveinstinctsofsocietyregardedasanorganismthatarationalfaithindemocracyisbased。

Theanimalorganism，itselfasocietyofcells，isendowedwithenergyofbodyandmind，operatingthroughanequipmentofinstinctivechannelstowardsitsownsurvivalanddevelopmentandthesurvivalanddevelopmentofitsspecies。Wherethereisdangerlesttoomuchofthisenergyshouldbeconsumeduponindividualends，toolittleonspecificends，thesocialorself-sacrificinginstinctsarestrengthenedintheindividual，andarereinforcedbytheherdorspecificfeelingsofotherindividuals，aswhereplunderersofthecommonstockorshirkersinthecommontasksaredestroyedbythehiveorherd。Theinstinctforthesurvivalanddevelopmentofthehive，herdorspecies，cannotbesatisfactorilyexplainedasbelongingonlytothepsycho-physicalequipmentoftheindividualmembers。Onthisbasis，viz。，thatofattributingasocialnatureonlytotheindividualmembersofasociety，theactsofdevotionandself-sacrifice，andstillmoretheactsofpreparatoryskill，theelaborateperformanceofdeedsthataremeanstothesurvivalandwell-beingofafuturegeneration，becomemerehaphazardmiracles。TakethefamiliarexampleoftheHuntingWasp。

"ThelarvaeofthevariousHuntingWaspsdemandamotionlesspreywhowillnot，bydefensivemovements，endangerthedelicateeggand，afterwards，thetinygrubfixedtoapartofthepreyInaddition，itisnecessarythatthisinertpreyshallbeneverthelessalive；forthegrubwouldnotacceptacorpseasfood。Itsvictualsmustbefreshmeatandnotpreservedprovisions。ThesetwoantagonisticconditionsofimmobilityandlifetheHymenopterarealisesbymeansofparalysis，whichdestroysmovementandleavestheorganicprincipleoflifeintact。Withaskillwhichourmostfamousvivisectorswouldenvy，theinsectdrivesitspoisonstingintothenervecentres，theseatofmuscularstimulation。Theoperatoreitherconfineshimselftoasinglestrokeofthelancet，orelsegivestwo，orthreeormore，accordingtothestructureoftheparticularnervoussystemandthenumberandgroupingofthenervecentres。Theexactanatomyofthevictimguidestheneedle。"10

Suchconductisnotmadeintelligiblebyanyotherhypothesisthanthatofacollectivelifeofthespecies，theindividuallivesbeing，infact，partsofacommonspecificlifetowardswhichtheycontributeinamannersimilartothatinwhichthecells，withtheirparticularlives，contributetothelifeoftheirorganism。Onlybythisapplicationorextensionofthe"organicmetaphor"totherelationsbetweenmembersofanexistinggeneration，andbetweensuccessivegenerations，canweconstructanintelligiblesequenceofcausationbetweenthesepreparatoryactsofindividualinsectsofonegenerationandtheresultsaccruingtootherindividualsofanothergeneration。

This"generalwill"(maywenotcallitso？)，urgingtheindividualstothefulfilmentofapurposewhichisbutslightlytheirs，andisnotmainlythatoftheexistinggeneration，butwhichembodiesthegeneralpurposeofthespeciesorsomewiderpurposeofastilllargerorganicwhole，canonlyberealisedforthoughtandfeelingasasinglecurrentofwillimplyingandconferringunityoflifeuponthespeciesorthelargerunity。

In"lower"animalsphereswerecognisethisfact。Butthereisatendencytoholdthatman，subjecttosomesuchspecificurgeorinstinctsinhisprimitivestages，hasbecomemoreandmoreindividualisedandhasdonesolargelybybecomingmorerational。Thegradualdisplacementofinstinctbyreason，itiscontended，hasmademanmoreself-sufficient，hislifemoreofthenatureofanend，lessofameanstowardsthelifeofhistribeornation，oreventowardsthatofhumanityasawhole。Isthisso？Therearetwoissuesthatopenhere。Intheprocessofcivilisationamancertainlybecomesmoreindividual。Hediffersincharactermorefromhisfellowsthaninearliertimes；heisabletodevote，anddoesdevote，alargershareofhisenergiesofbodyandmindtoactivitieswhichareprimarilyself-regarding。Moreover，hetendstorelylessexclusivelyorpredominantlyuponwhatwouldbecalledhisinstinctsandmoreuponhisreason。

§；17。The"generalwill，"whichthroughformsoftribalcustomandofgregariousinstinctpulsedsovigorouslyandsoinsistentlyintriballife，seemstohaveweakenedwitheveryexpansionofsocialareaandwiththeadvancingcomplexityofsocialrelations。Theeconomyofhumanenergyallowsindividualstoapplyalargershareofthelife-forcethatflowsthroughthemtowhatappeartothemtheirprivatepurposes，asmallertotheprotectionanddevelopmentofthesocietyorspecies。Ifweweretoassignanyfinalvaliditytotheoppositionofindividualandsociety，thischangemightberegardedasashrinkageofthedominionofthe"generalwill，"thespecificascontrastedwiththeindividualpurpose。Butthoughthenarrowintensetribalwillmaythusappeartohaveyieldedtoabroader，feeblerandlessimperativeformofnationalorsocialwill，itbynomeansfollowsthatthislatterworkslesseffectivelyforthecommongood。Asmanbecomesmoreintelligentandmorereflective，andhasfortifiedhimselfwithlargerandmorereliablerecordsandbettermethodsofcontrollinghisenvironment，theinstinctiveoperationsofthewillofgroupsoftribalanimalsgiveplacetomoreconscious，morerational，purposes。

Thechangemustnotindeedbeoverstressed。Thevalidityofthegeneralwilldoesnotdependuponthedegreeofconsciousrationalpurposeithasattained。Itremainsto-dayinthemosthighlycivilisedcommunitieswhatitwasinprimitivetriballife，anorganicinstinct。Therationalisationofthisblindfacultyoforganicself-protectionandadvancementhasnotyetgoneveryfar。Indeed，itisexceedinglyimportanttorecognisethatanorganicinstinctofconservationandofprogressunderliesthewisdomofthepeople。Thosewhoconsiderpoliticsarightfulmonopolyoftheeducatedclassesdoublyerr；first，inignoringtheinstinctivewisdomofthepeople，secondlyinclaimingforeducationahighervalueforpoliticaldirectionthanitpossesses。ThepoliticalwisdomoftheRomanorthegermanicpeoplespartakesfarmoreofanaturalsagacitythanofareasonedprocess。Ifthisappliestothegreatstatesman，itisstillmoreapplicabletothebodyofthepeoplewhoseconsentoractivecooperationcontributestotheevolutionofastableandaprogressivestate。Itisimpossibletounderstandortoexplainanylongandcomplexmovementinnationalhistorybypiecingtogethertheconsciousrationaldesignsoftheindividualsorgroupsofmenwhoexecutedtheseveralmovesofwhichthemovementseemedtoconsist。

SuchastructureastheBritishConstitution，suchanepisodeastheFrenchRevolution，cannotbeotherwiseregarded，initsorganicunity，thanasaproductofenergiesofcommonwillandpurpose，wider，deeperandobscurerintheirworkingthantheparticularintelligiblemotivesandaimswhichappearedonthestageofparliamentarydebates，militarycampaignsormobviolence。Everystudentofthe"spirit"ofoneofthesegreatnationaldramasisdriventorecognisesomemouldingordirectinginfluence，someurgeofevents，bywhichtheyseemtounfoldthemselvesinalargerandmorecomplexpatternorconsistencythanisperceivedbyanyoftheagents。

Thereissometimesatendencytogiveamysticalinterpretationtothistruth。SoVictorHugowritesoftheFrenchRevolution:

"Ê；treunmembredelaConvention，c"é；taitê；treunevaguedel"Ocean。Etcecié；taitvraidesplusgrands。Laforced"impulsionvenaitd"enhaut。IlyavaitdanslaConventionunevolonté；quié；taitcelledetouseta"é；taitcelledepersonne。Cettevolonté；

é；taituneidé；e，idé；eindomptableetdé；mesuré；equisoufflaitdansl"ombreduhautduciel。NousappelonscelalaRé；volution。

Quandcetteidé；epassaitelleabattaitl"unetsoulevaitl"autre；

elleemportaitcelui-ciené；cumeetbrisaitcelui-là；auxé；cueils。Cetteidé；esavaitoù；elleallait，etpoussaitlegouffredevantelle。Imputerlaré；volutionauxhommes，c"estimputerlamaré；eauxflots。"11

Theexplanationofourcolonialempireastheresultofacareerofconquestandexpansionconducted"inafitofabsenceofmind"isanexactstatementofthetruth。Forthoughafewgreatempire-builders，suchasWarrenHastings，Molesworth，Elgin，GreyandRhodes，mayhaveplayedtheirpartswithsomemeasureofconsciousdesign，theindividualchannelsofthiscurrentofadventurousandconstructiveenergyembodiedinthegeneralprocesshadaslittleanideaoftheimperialedificeasanyworkingbeeofthegreatsymmetricalstructureofthehive。

§；18。Thissenseof"manifestdestiny"issurelynoillusion。Itistheevolutionarymethodbywhichallorganicprocessisachieved，whetherinthegrowthofanoaktreefromitsacorn，ofamotorcarfromtheearliesthand-barrow，amusicalsymphonyfromasavagetom-tom，oramodernfederalstatefromtheprimitivetribalorder。Ineverycaseanumberofwhatseemseparatelymotivedactionsareseentocarryandexpressthecontinuityofsomecommontendencywhichbringsthemunderthecontrolofasinglecollectivedesign。Thiswiderpurposeisseenoperatinguponthelargerorganicstageofconductinwayscloselyanalogoustotheoperationsofthepoetortheartistinanyhumanfineart。Itexhibitstheurgeofaninnerflowofpsycho-physicalenergyseekingeverfinermodesofexpressionbymouldingthematerialsatitsdisposal。Assoonaswegraspthisideaofthecollectiveartistryofaspeciesoranyotherorganicgroup，werecognisehowlackinginlogicalfinalityistheacceptedantithesisofinstinctandreason。Thereasonoftheorganismwillappearasablindinstinctivedrivetothecellwhoseconductitdirects。Sothespecificpurposewillshowitselfasinstinctintheindividualorganism，thoughitmaybeneitherblindnorunconscioustothespeciestakenastheorganicunit。Nay，wemaygofurtherandsuggestthatadvancingreasonintheindividualanimalmayconsistinagrowingsympathyandsyn-noesiswiththeoperationsofthewiderorganism。Mustnotthisbewhathappenswhenwhatwetermreasonendorsesandreinforcestheinstinctiveactionsofspecificpreservationandwell-being，substitutingreflectionforimpulse，plansforcustoms，orderlyandchanginginstitutionsforblindordinanceswhoseauthorityisgregariousimitationorSuperstitiousprestige？Arewewrongwhenwetraceaninstinctofobediencetoachieftransformedintoareasonedsubmissiontothelaw？Maynotthenthewholeprocessoftherationalisationofmanberegardedasabringingoftheindividualmanintovitalcommunionofthoughtandfeelingwiththethoughtsandfeelingsoftherace，ofhumanity，perhapsofthelargerorganicbeingofthekosmos？Foramanonlybecomesrationalsofarashetakesadisinterestedviewofhimself，hisfellow-menandoftheworldhelivesin，andthewider，closer，keenerthatviewthemorerationalhebecomes。Thustheevolutionofthemindofmanintoafullerrationalitymeansthestrengtheningandclarifyingofthoserelationsoffeelingandthoughtwhichbindhimtohisfellowsandtohisworldandwhicharerootedinthe"blind"instinctsofgregarious，superstitious，curiousman。

§；19。Theupshotoftheseconsiderationsistobreakdowntheabruptnessofthecontrastbetweenreasonandinstinctandtorecogniseinreasonitselfthesubtlestplayofthecreativeinstinct。The"disinterested"

natureofthesearchfortruthhasbeenasubjectofderisionamongsomethinkers，whoseenowaybywhichmantheindividualcandisengagehimselffromtheselfishmotiveswhichseemtorulehimandtodisposealikeofhisemotionalandintellectualenergies。Inmanregardedasindividualitisverydifficulttorecogniseanypossibilityofadisinterestedmotive，becauseallsuchmotivesareruledoutexhypothesi。Butregardtheindividualmanassubjecttothedominantcontrolofsomewiderlifethanhis，thatofrace，society，humanityorkosmos，andthedifficultydisappears。Hebecomescapableof"disinterested"curiosity，"disinterested"love，"self-sacrifices"

ofvariouskinds，becauseheisacentreofwiderintereststhanthoseofhisownparticularself。TheactionofaJapanesewhothrowshimselfupontheRussianbayonetsatthewordofcommand，ofadoctorwhoinoculateshimselfwithadeadlypoisonforthesakeofscience，thesteadylifelongtoilofmillionsofpeasantsgrowingthefoodsupplyforunknownmillionsoftown-dwellers，arenolonger"disinterested"whentheyarelookedatfromthestandpointoftheinterestsofhumanityasawhole。Thiscollectivewillandintelligencecanneverbeconsideredwholly"blind"whenregardedfromthecollectivestandpoint。Everydirectiveinstinctofanorganism，atanyrateintheanimalworld，mustbeaccreditedwithsomerelatedemotion，12

andthisemotion，regardedasafactinconsciousness，mustbeaccreditedwithsomemeasureofintelligence。Thecreaturesubjecttothedriveofanemotionmusthavesomeideaofwhatheisabout，thoughthefullpsycho-biological"purpose"ofhisactionmaybehiddenfromhim。Thisorganicstandpointgivesanintelligiblemeaningtowhatwemaycallthe"naturalwisdomofthepeople。"Theherd，thetribe，thenationisendowedwithinstinctsofself-protectionandofgrowth。Theseinstinctsareaccompaniedbycorrespondingemotionswhich，accordingtothedegreeofintelligencetheycontain，impelittoarightoreconomicaluseofthephysicalandspiritualenvironmentforsurvivaland"progress。"Theinstinctiveandemotionalstreamofthiscommonlifebecomesmore"rational"asthefactorsofintelligenceaccompanyingtheemotionsbecomeclearer，bettercoordinatedandendowedwithlargercapacityofcentraldirection。Intheevolutionofanimalorganismsthisgrowthofrationalityimplies，andiscompassedby，adeclineofthespecialinstinctswithaconsequentweakeningofthespecialemotionsattachedtothem，andthesubstitutionofaflexiblegeneralinstinctoperatingthroughacentralisednervoussystemandcoordinatingthespecialorganicemotionsandactivitiestoserveamoreclearlyconceivedorganicpurposeoftheindividualortherace。Reason，regardedasamotivepowerandnotasamereintellectualorgan，mustbeconsideredasthisgeneralinstinctofsurvivalandgrowth，havingitsrootsintheapparentlyseparateinstinctsofhunger，procreation，shelter，pugnacity，flight，gregariousness，protectionofyoung，curiosity，constructiveness，acquisitivenessandthelike，andutilisingtheemotionspropertotheseseveralinstinctsfortheeconomyofsomemoregeneralplanoflife。Reasoning，asan"intellectualprocess，"

willprobablyderiveitsemotionalfoodandimpetusprincipallyfromtheemotionscarriedbytheinstinctsofflightandpursuit，whichinvolvequickjudgmentintheuseofmeans，andbythecuriosityandconstructivenesswhichimpelthemorereflectivestudyandadaptationofmaterialenvironment。

Itis，however，nopurposeofminetoenterintotheparticularsofthistheoryofthenaturaloriginsofreason。Itissufficienttorecognise；

firstthatpriortothedawnof"reason"inorganicevolution，theinstinctscarryandapplyawisdomofdirectionoftheirown；secondlythatwhenreasontakesovermuchofthisdirectingpoweritoperatesbycoordinating，notbycreating，motivepower。

Sowhenwesubstitutefortheindividualorganismtheherd，thetribe，thenation，ascendingtolargercollectivewholes，sustainedbyaclearerconsciousnessofunityandafulleruseofcentralconsciouspurpose，wefollowthesameeconomyofgovernment。If，asisoftenurged，anation，regardedasanorganism，mustbeclassedasacomparativelyprimitivetype，onalevelratherwiththespongesoralgaethanwiththehigheranimals，weshallexpecttofindthataverylargemeasureofsuch"wisdom"asitpossesseswillbeinstinctiveratherthan"rational。"Theevolutionofageneralwill，whetheroperativebypublicopinionorgovernmentalinstitutions，willonsuchahypothesispossessnogreatdegreeofcentralityorclearconsciousness。Goodgovernmentinsuchasocietycouldnotbecompassedbyanoligarchyorevenarepresentativeassemblyassumingameasureofdetailedandfar-sightedpolicyforwhichthecollectivelifewasnotyetripe。Alargemeasureofwhatfromtherationalstandpointwouldrankas"opportunism"wouldbethetruepolicyatsuchastageofsocialevolution，andthewisestatesmanwouldkeephiseartothegroundsoastolearntheinstinctivemovementsofthepopularmindwhichwouldyieldthebestfreightofpoliticalwisdomathisdisposal。OnlyaseducationandcloserandmorereliablecommunicationselevatedtheorganicstructureofSociety，impartinghigherspirituality，morecentralityandclearerconsciousnesstoitslife，shouldweexpectanyconsiderablerationalisationofthegeneralwill。Meanwhilearisethetemptationanddangeroftheformalinstrumentsofgovernmentfallingintothehandsofalittlehighlyself-consciousgrouporclass，whomayseektoimposeupontheconductofthenationitsclearerplansandfar-sightedpurposes"underthenameandpretextofthecommonwealth。"Theabsoluteoractualwisdomoftheirwilltheywillbeapttorepresentasembodyingtherealityofthegeneralwill。Itiswhattheythink"thepeople"oughttowillandthereforewhatthepeoplewillcometowillassoonastheyarereallycapableofwillingintelligently!

Itis，however，exceedinglyimportanttotryandrecognisetheinstinctivewisdomofthepeople，inorderthatamisrepresentativegovernmentmaybepreventedfromignoringitandsubstitutingtherationalismofsomelittleconsciousclass。

Thisdoesnotmeanthatagovernmentmustalwaysgovernandadaptitslawstothelevelofthecurrentfeelings，desiresandaspirationsoftheaverageman，givinghimnoleadorstimulustohigherrationality。Suchacoursewouldbetoignorethatcapacityforprogressandthatsusceptibilitytoproximateidealswhicharethemselvesimplantedintheinstinctsofmankind。Butitdoesrequirethatagovernmentshallkeepitselfintheclosestsympathywiththeconcretefeelingsandideasofthepeople，maintainingsuchcontactsasshallenableitsactsofpolicytorankassubstantiallycorrectinterpretationsofthegeneralwill，notasthedesignsofasupremegoverningcasteorgroupofinterests，pumpeddownthroughsomeartfullycontrivedelectoralmachinerysoastoreceivethefalseformalimpressof"thegeneralwill。"

Thesereflectionsuponthenatureofpopulargovernmentmayappeartohavecarriedusfarafield。Buttheyhavebeennoirrelevantexcursion。

Foruponourviewofthenatureandmeasureofrationalitytobeimputedtotheprocessesofreformorprogressinnationallifemustdependourviewofthepartwhichcanbeplayedbythesocialscienceswhichareinvokedasthechiefinstrumentsofconsciouscollectiveconduct。

Recognisingthatsocialprogressinallitsdepartmentsremainsalwaysacollectiveart，inspiredandsustainedbycreativeimpulseswhichoweneithertheiroriginortheirvaliditytoscience，weshallregardthesocialsciencesasservantsratherthandirectorsofsocialprogress。Weshallbeconcernedtoask，Whataretheproperandparticularservicessuchsciencescanrender？Howcantheyassistapeopleinutilisingitshumanandnaturalresourcesfortheattainmentofthebestconditionsofhumanlife，individualandsocial？

Thisworkiswrittenasapartialandillustrativeanswertothesequestions。Takingindustry，thatdepartmentofsocialconductmostsusceptibleofthequantitativemeasurementwhichistheinstrumentofscience，wehaveendeavoredtoconstructandapplyanorganonofhumanvaluationtoitsactivitiesandachievements。Recognisingthatindustry，regardedfromtheindividualorthesocialstandpoint，wasanorganicactivity，involvingcontinualreactionsuponthewholelifeoftheindividualandthesociety，weinsistedthatthestandardofvaluationmustbeconstructedintermsoforganicwell-being。Inotherwords，industry，bothfromitsproductiveanditsconsumptiveside，mustbevaluedintermsofindividualandsocialhealth，thattermbeingselectedastheonewhichbestexpressestheconditionsofconservationandofprogressuniversallyrecognisedastheessentialsofa"valuable"life。Intheactualinterpretationofthisorganicwelfare，wetookforourvaluer"enlightened"common-sense。Therootsofthiscommon-sensewefindlaidinthesilent，instinctiveorganicstrivingsofmankind。Itisthebusinessofscience，ororganisedknowledge，todirectthesestrivingssoastoenablethemtoattaintheirendsmoreeconomically。Itdoesthisbyinterpretingexperienceandsupplyingtheinterpretationintheshapeof"laws"toenlightencommon-senseandsoenableittochooseitspaths。

Fortheeconomyofblindinstinctsisonlyaccommodatedtosimpleactivitiesinastableenvironment，andiseventhensubjecttoenormousvitalwastes。

Forcomplicatedactivitiesinarapidlychangingandcomplexenvironment，ageneralinstinctofadaptabilityofmeanstoends，involvingconsciousreflection，isrequired。Reasonisthisgeneralinstinctandscienceisitsinstrument。Society，asitsprocessesofevolutionbecomemoreconscious，willbeabletousemoreprofitablytheservicesofscience。Thoseservicesconsistnotinauthoritativelegislationforsocialconduct，forlawsbaseduponexperienceofthepastcanhavenofullauthoritytobindthefuture。

Faithandrisk-taking，involvinglargeelementsoftheincalculable，areinherentinorganicprocesses，andaretheverysapofspiritualinterestinlife。Theycanneverbebroughtunderthedominionofascientificeconomy。

Butthemainstapleineveryartofconductisrepetitionandconsideredadaptation，restinguponacontinuityofconditions。Forthispartofsocialconductscience，whensufficientlyequipped，canandwillofferauthoritativeadvice。Throughoutallnaturetheartsofconservationandcreationruntogether。Theartofconservationisthepracticalfunctionofscience:

theartofcreationeverremainsaregionofbeckoningliberty，continuallyannexedbyscience，andyetundiminishedinitssizeandtsappeal。

"ForallexperienceisanarchwherethroughGleamsthatuntravelledlandwhosemarginfadesForeverandforeveraswemove。"

NOTES:

1。ItwaspreciselyonthisrockthatJ。S。Mill"sutilitarianismsplit。

HetriedtoincorporateinthequantitativecalculusofBenthamitepleasureandpaindistinctionsofthequalityorworthofdifferentsortsofpleasureandpain，andfailedtofurnishanymethodofreducingthemtocommonterms。

2。Wicksteed，CommonSenseofPoliticalEconomy

7。Thisolderdoctrineofmarginalism，concernedwiththecomparisonofmarginalutilities，ormarginalcosts，intheapplicationofexpenditureofproductiveenergy，mustnotbeconfusedwiththenoveldoctrinewhichwediscussedinChapterXIinrelationtowages。Inthenewerdoctrineanyunitofasupplymayberegardedasthemarginalunitandeveryunitasequallyproductiveoruseful。Accordingtotheolderdoctrineeachunithasadifferentcostorutility。

8。ProfessorPigouinhisWealthandWelfarediscusseswithskillandprecisionthemeasurableinfluencesofanincreaseofthegeneraldividendupongeneralwelfare，butomitstotakeintoconsiderationthe"cost"factorswhichenterinto"welfare，"howeverthattermbedefined。

9。Protectionistscanseldom，ifever，pleadsuccessfullyeitherofthesecases。ByreducingthecommunityofeconomicinterestsbetweennationsProtectionnormallyincreasesthechancesofwar，whilelesseningthenationalresourceswhicharethesinewsofwar。So，likewise，itsnormaltendencyistoworsenthedistributionofWealthwithinthenation。